Wednesday, August 19, 2026·Independent Market Research·The arithmetic behind the moves

The Lead — Research Note No. 010

Tesla after the print: what “oversold” has actually paid.

Down 14.5% in a day, 20% in five sessions, 37% off the high — and RSI at 28, the bottom 2% of all sessions since 2013. We recomputed every indicator from the raw tape and measured all 17 prior crashes like this one: the bounce is common at five days, a coin flip at one month, and the quarter skews positive with brutal dispersion. The base rates, the re-mark arithmetic, and the instrument ledger — computed, not opined.

Read Note No. 010 — The Oversold Ledger · $17 →

Research notes

Research Note No. 005 · $17 · NVDA

The Gamma Anchor

The largest single-name options book in the market leaves the dealer complex obligated to hedge in NVDA shares. We map the strikes where that forced hedging concentrates — the Call Wall, the Put Wall, and the gamma flip between them.

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Research Note No. 007 · $17 · BTC

The ETF Supply Sink

Miners print 450 coins a day, fixed by protocol. Wall Street's spot ETFs can sink ten times that in an hour and never mint back. A strict two-ledger read on the impending liquidity deficit.

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Research Note No. 008 · $17 · ETH

The Staking Illiquidity Trap

A third of all ether is locked in staking, and the protocol meters how fast it can leave. We compute Ethereum's effective float and why engineered scarcity amplifies every forced-buying event.

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Research Note No. 009 · $17 · SOL

The VC Unlock Ledger

The hard-coded distribution schedule for Solana's early VCs, team, and the FTX estate — a raw timeline of when locked tranches become sellable and hit the public order books.

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Research Note No. 006 · $17 · PLTR

The Index Absorption Rate

A half-cent of every S&P 500 dollar is routed into Palantir by rule, price-agnostic. The arithmetic of the passive block that must buy PLTR's thin float — and the quarterly dates it resets on.

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Research Note No. 003 · $17

Forced Flows

A Tesla–SpaceX combination would put $45B–$125B of index money in motion — the conditional trade the crowd can't position for until a deal exists. The reallocation arithmetic, mapped in advance.

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Trader's Primers · from $9

Read the Tape, Plainly

Candlesticks, support & resistance, and the Algorithmic Confluence — classic chart-reading framed as mechanical flow, on real dated examples, with none of the fortune-telling.

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The house method

How we read the tape

We don't predict prices. We follow the money that moves for mechanical reasons — index rebalances, rule-driven flows, algorithmic execution levels — and mark what the market has already priced in. Every figure is checkable, from public filings and index methodology.

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