Ananke AlphaResearch Note No. 003 — Forced Flows
Wedbush hangs eighty-percent odds on a combination; we would not lean on that so much as note it. The useful question is not will it happen. It is: if it does, which funds end up on the sell side of TSLA — by index rule, at what size — and why this branch, unlike the inclusion trade everyone front-ran, cannot be priced until a deal exists.
What the note establishes
The S&P's profitability test examines the surviving entity, not the letterhead — the detail that defeats "they'll just keep Tesla as the parent." SpaceX's losses annualize to roughly –$17B against Tesla's +$3.9B; a combined company fails the test, and Tesla's 1.71% seat — ninth-largest in the index — comes out. Meanwhile the same $20T of S&P-benchmarked capital cannot own SPCX at all before mid-2027.
Why this is not a prediction
On June 4, S&P Dow Jones rejected its own proposal to waive the four-quarter profitability requirement, with SpaceX's Q1 loss cited as disqualifying. We are reading a ruling, not speculating about one. The note maps every mechanical flow — index funds, arb desks, benchmarked long-onlys — and labels what is already priced, what is conditional, and what the "free money" crowd gets wrong.
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