Ananke AlphaResearch Note No. 007 — The ETF Supply Sink
Miners print 450 a day. Wall Street's ETFs can drink that in an hour.
Bitcoin has two numbers fixed in advance: how many new coins the network mints each day, and how many the code will ever allow. The first is 450 a day, set in silicon. Against that fixed tap now sits a drain that did not exist two cycles ago — the U.S. spot ETFs, which on a strong day absorb ten times a day's issuance and never mint anything back. This note is a strict ledger: new supply on one side, structural ETF accumulation on the other, and the arithmetic of the deficit between them.
- The supply side — 450 new coins a day, ~164K a year, fixed by protocol until the next halving, and why the effective new float is often even less
- The two ledgers side by side — miner issuance against trailing-average and strong-day ETF net creations, in raw BTC counts
- Why a sink is different from a buyer — coins into a wrapper leave the liquid float one-way, and the timeline to a genuine deficit is simple subtraction
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Written by a former institutional derivatives trader turned technologist — 11+ years of it, most recently in AI, now building research like software. Every figure is drawn from protocol rules and public ETF-flow data — arithmetic, not opinion, and never a prediction.