Ananke AlphaResearch Note No. 004 — The Supply Cliff
The SPCX insider unlock schedule, in shares.
A lockup is the one part of a new listing written down in advance — a calendar of dates on which specific, previously unsellable shares become sellable. SPCX floats on roughly 3% of its stock today. This note maps the hard-coded unlock schedule through December in raw share counts: what clears, when, and how much it widens the float. Insiders treat these dates as structural supply shocks; retail often treats them as a surprise.
- The hard-coded tranche calendar — every step-down through the Dec 8 full expiry, with approximate share counts
- The float math — how many days of average volume each tranche represents, the number that actually sets the clearing discount
- How desks pre-position and absorbthe supply vs. the retail “trade the expiry open” reflex — and the 366-day founder lock behind it all
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Written by a former institutional derivatives trader turned technologist — 11+ years of it, most recently in AI, now building research like software. Every figure is drawn from the disclosed lockup terms and public market data — arithmetic, not opinion, and never a prediction.