Ananke AlphaResearch Note No. 010 — The Oversold Ledger
Tesla after the print: what “oversold” has actually paid.
Tesla fell 14.5% on July 23 — its worst day in over a year — and closed the week down 20%, at $313 and 37% off its high. Every holder is asking the same three questions: is it oversold, does it bounce, and which instrument expresses the answer. None of those are opinions. The first is a definition, the second is a base rate, and the third is a price. We computed all three from the raw tape — every indicator recalculated ourselves, every prior crash measured — so you can reason about your own decision with real numbers.
- What broke in Q2 — record deliveries and a revenue beat against a 40% EPS miss, compressed margins, negative free cash flow, and a tripled capex program: the re-mark hit the narrative sleeve, not the cars
- The tape, recomputed — RSI 28 (bottom 2% of all sessions since 2013), 22% below the 50-day, a three-ATR crash day, 2.7σ below the 20-day mean
- The analog ledger — all 18 one-day drops of −12%+ since 2013, and the honest distribution of what followed at 5 days, 1 month, and 1 quarter — plus the instrument ledger: stock vs. calls vs. cash-secured puts, and what each actually prices
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Written by a former institutional derivatives trader turned technologist — 11+ years of it, most recently in AI, now building research like software. Every indicator in this note is computed from raw daily data, not quoted from a dashboard — arithmetic, not opinion, and never a prediction.